The first round of Colombia’s presidential election sprung a surprise as Abelardo de la Espriella officially gained over 600,000 more votes than progressive candidate Iván Cepeda of President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact party. This was despite Cepeda having maintained a significant polling lead throughout the election campaign. While the strength of De la Espriella’s performance has sparked concerns that Colombia could swing to a far-right government, there remain good reasons for optimism in the Historic Pact’s core base of trade unions, social movements, young people, rural communities and the pro-peace movement. After all, in 2022, Petro increased his votes by over two million in the second round compared with the first.
Firstly, those targeting a first-round outright victory for Cepeda did so on the basis that the conservative vote would be split between the two prominent right-wing candidates, De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia of the more established Democratic Centre party. Some polls had expected Valencia to perform more strongly than De la Espriella, but as it turned out, Valencia’s vote collapsed, with the bulk of right-wing voters shifting to De la Espriella in the last week before the election. It seems that these voters feared a first-round victory for Cepeda and decided that De la Espriella was their only realistic hope. De la Espriella’s vote therefore represented much of the possible vote for the right-wing, which could indicate that his support has little room to grow further in the second round.
Valencia’s final share of the vote did not even reach seven per cent. Some analysts think that this vote was partly due to the supporters of centrist Juan Daniel Oviedo, who was her vice-presidential running mate. Oviedo is gay and has been the subject of homophobic remarks from De la Espriella, hardly likely to have endeared the candidate to Oviedo’s supporters. If Cepeda can hoover up some of the more moderate Valencia/Oviedo support, it could tip the balance his way, although Oviedo has not endorsed either candidate yet.
The rest of the centrist vote sits with Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López, who together gained five per cent of the vote. Fajardo has so far refused to back Cepeda or De la Espriella, saying that he leaves it to the conscience of his supporters. However, at the same time, he has published a list of ‘Ten Commandments’ that summarise his voters’ main priorities, with notable similarities to aspects of Cepeda’s programme.
Meanwhile, Oviedo has been in touch with Cepeda, although he is yet to say where he thinks his voters should turn. Some of Cepeda’s centrist allies have reached out to Fajardo, López and Oviedo, but these conversations have yet to result in any concrete statements. In Colombian politics, such endorsements historically come with strings attached, which Cepeda has so far sought to avoid. Nevertheless, it is likely he will have to make some compromises if he hopes to win over some of their voters.
Cepeda’s campaign must also focus on mobilising those citizens who did not turn out in the first round. Most Colombian elections see a turnout in the region of 40-55 per cent, which means there is likely another 10 per cent of the electorate we can expect to vote on the 21 June. Young people, particularly, represent a core group who could swing the second round in Cepeda’s favour: vice-presidential candidate Aida Quilcué’s pending interview with the highly influential online streamer WestCOL shows an awareness within the campaign of the need to engage mass audiences in new ways. Indeed, one criticism of the Historic Pact’s campaign is that it has focused too heavily on public rallies, mainly attended by established supporters, rather than use social media platforms such as TikTok and Twitch whose reach is enormous with young people.
It may also be that De la Espriella’s sycophancy towards Donald Trump could backfire, with the US president unpopular among many Colombians. When Trump announced his support for De la Espriella following the first round, the latter was gushing in his response: ‘With my head held high and a heart full of patriotic gratitude, I receive your words and your steadfast support … Thank you, Mr President!’ tweeted De la Espriella, alongside an image of an eagle and tiger to symbolise their unity. How this fawning plays to a public not entirely appreciative of the US president’s belligerence, racism towards Latinos and overall vulgar persona is open to question. In Brazil, for example, President Lula’s approval ratings grew in the face of tariff disputes with the US, while in Colombia some consider that Trump’s recent hostility also increased Petro’s popularity.
While everything is still to play for, it is clear the Cepeda campaign faces challenges to win the second round of the election. It will require a big effort by the Historic Pact’s grassroots to get out the vote, combined with needing to engage the many Colombians who sit on the political fence or who do not usually vote. There is still every chance that Colombia will vote to continue the social reforms, respect for life and democratic participation that have marked the Petro years.