Progressive senator Iván Cepeda, a member of President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact coalition, has topped polling published ahead of the first round of Colombia’s presidential election, which takes place on 31 May 2026. In a survey of voting preferences conducted by the pollster Invamer, Cepeda, with 31.9 per cent, was significantly ahead of his closest rivals, the right-wing populist Abelardo de la Aspriella and centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo, with 18.2 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively.
Some 30 candidates were included in polling, with the majority failing to reach three per cent of voting intention. A number of well-known figures appear unable to transmit their public profiles into significant votes, such as conservative politician Miguel Uribe Londoño (4.2 per cent), former Bogota mayor Claudia López (4.1 per cent) and right-wing broadcaster Vicky Dávila (3.7 per cent). The poll reflected the voting intentions of 2,080 people in 148 municipalities throughout the country.
A projected second-round vote, which takes place if no candidate win over 50 per cent of the total vote or at least a 10 per cent margin over the second-placed candidate in the first round, would see Cepeda’s 48.9 per cent defeat Fajardo’s 46.5 per cent in a closer contest. That margin would be greater should Cepeda face off against Aspriella, with a projected 51.7 per cent against 38.9 per cent.
While the poll appears optimistic for the progressive movement, Cepeda is currently the only candidate confirmed ahead of the election, representing the left of Colombian politics. Once other candidates are determined, that projected lead could be reduced, as political programmes and manifestos become known. Cepeda has spoken of the need to form a broad front across the left and centre-left if Colombia is to prevent a return to right-wing governance, which would present a major reversal in areas of peacebuilding and tackling inequality that have formed central pillars of the Petro government’s agenda.