Colombia’s presidential election second round, held on Sunday 21 June, saw far-right Abelardo de la Espriella provisionally win the presidency after obtaining 49.7 per cent of the vote, a single percentage point ahead of progressive and pro-peace senator Iván Cepeda.
While De la Espriella celebrated by immediately calling Trump to endorse his triumph, his victory is not yet officially or legally confirmed until a final ‘scrutiny count’ has taken place. The margin between the two candidates was just over 250,000 votes so there is a possibility the result could change once this is complete. In 2022, the scrutiny saw close to 400,000 votes invalidated or awarded to the progressive Historic Pact led by Gustavo Petro, who was elected president. Earlier this year, the scrutiny of the parliamentary elections saw over 400,000 votes reallocated to the Historic Pact.
President Petro is also alleging irregularities in the vote counting software, which is managed by a company who De la Espriella met with earlier this year, and has reiterated calls for an investigation. There are reports of vote buying for De la Espriella in the north of the country and of double voting at some tables. One investigation claims that some employers have pressured their workers to vote for De la Espriella by threatening to withhold future contracts. There are therefore plenty of grounds to question the preliminary result.
Nevertheless, Colombia is now preparing for the possibility of a return to a far right and anti-peace government. This has serious implications for the progress made under President Petro in protecting human rights, implementing the 2016 peace agreement and improving social and economic indicators, while it also threatens to upend recent political stability.
De la Espriella has threatened to extradite President Petro and other members of the Historic Pact, while some of his allies have spoken about ‘tearing the guts’ out of the left. In the context of the historic violence suffered by civil society and trade unions, this has many Colombian activists deeply worried. De la Espriella has said he will dismantle the JEP transitional justice court – a centrepiece of the 2016 peace agreement – and has threatened military escalation against armed groups, while also saying he would slash state spending by 40 per cent. He wants Colombia to join Trump’s ‘Shield of the Americas’ right-wing alliance and sign a partnership deal with Israel that has a heavy military-technological edge. Many fear that these policies will lead to increased polarisation and violence in Colombia.
Much depends on what De la Espriella is able to do if his victory is confirmed. His margin is the smallest in Colombian electoral history and his Defenders of the Homeland party has only four senate seats, compared with the 26 seats for Petro and Cepeda’s Historic Pact. For a more traditional politician, this would force alliances with other political forces that might dilute De la Espriella’s more extreme proposals, but since he has also promised to sign 90 decrees upon assuming power, it seems more likely that he will simply seek to steamroller any opposition.
This is highly alarming and would weaken Colombian democracy. It could also place severe strain on the Constitutional Court. De la Espriella’s open hostility towards the left could not only see Historic Pact leaders extradited, it could also turbocharge violent aggression against grassroots opponents, while impunity for state violence would likely resurface, following a period in which army and police human rights abuses plummeted under Petro.
Until the scrutiny count is confirmed, there remains the possibility that the preliminary result will swing to Cepeda. Many Colombians, however, are bracing themselves for a potential return to the militaristic and ultra-right direction that caused such damage in the past.