Colombia’s first round presidential election on 31 May saw progressive candidate Ivan Cepeda win a historic number of votes for a left-wing candidate in the first round. However, his far-right opponent, Abelardo de la Espriella, won a higher percentage of the vote overall, taking the elections into a second round run off on 21 June. The result is as yet preliminary, with a final tally to be declared after the votes have been scrutinised.
The preliminary result based on ballot box samples has no legal validity, and it is used to give an indication of the election’s outcome to avoid uncertainty. However, President Petro has stated that he does not recognise the ‘precount’ vote’s validity because of suspicious changes to the algorithms used in the vote registration software, and the possible inscription of extra voters who were not on the official electoral rolls. Cepeda has also said that ‘atypical voting’ has been discovered at some tables, and that he won’t discuss the results until the scrutiny of the vote has been completed.
According to the preliminary results, Iván Cepeda won almost 41 per cent of the votes, De la Espriella 43.7 per cent.
Setting aside the potential issues around the software and the preliminary count, analysis of the vote shows that the bulk of the far-right vote went to De la Espriella. His numbers had been increasing in recent polls, while those of his right-wing competitor, Paloma Valencia, were static. In the last week, her supporters’ faith in her ability to defeat Cepeda seems to have been affected, and the majority of them look to have shifted their votes to De la Espriella. Meanwhile, the centrist vote either went to Cepeda, or to a handful of centrist candidates, and may not turn to De la Espriella in the second round. This means that De la Espriella could have already reached his electoral ceiling.
At the same time, Cepeda may still have room to grow his vote. Cepeda was able to mobilise almost 9.7 million votes, the highest ever first round tally for a progressive candidate, and most analysts think he can still benefit by appealing to the centrist vote. Some even think that he can go on to win Paloma Valencia voters who are supporters of her more centrist running mate, Juan Daniel Oviedo. Furthermore, voter abstention was over 42 per cent. Since second round votes often come in around 50-55 per cent participation, this means that there are at least another 5-10 per cent of voters who did not take part in the first round. If either candidate can mobilise this vote, it could prove decisive.
But the preliminary result will also play a part in shaping the second round. According to the campaign lead for one of the centrist candidates, the precount process has three key issues: the first is counting at tables in conflict zones, the second is how the vote recording forms are filled out, and the third is the ability to report and evidence violations.
The ‘precount’ is carried out by a private company contracted by the National Registry Office. The votes are counted in front of witnesses and electoral authorities and then a contractor telephones them through to the Registry Office. At the Registry Office the data is inputted into a programme owned by a private company. In 2022, this same system saw Cepeda’s Historic Pact coalition lose almost 400,000 votes, as was discovered during the scrutiny process. The Historic Pact was the last party listed, and many contactors apparently forgot to add its vote count to the total. Events such as this have led some commentators to point out that in Colombia ‘recent electoral history provides an uncomfortable lesson: it is not enough to get the votes, you need to be able to defend them.’ This is why all political parties deploy large numbers of electoral observers and official witnesses, and those with the most money can cover more polling tables.
Petro’s allegations around the software being used to count the vote are based on controversies surrounding the company contracted to run the precount. Thomas Greg & Sons is owned by Fernando and Camilo Bautista. Convicted of fraud in the US in the late 1980s, and facing fraud charges in Mexico today, the company owners until recently had the contract to administer and print Colombia’s passports and have run the National Registry’s scrutiny processes and software for more than a decade.
Critics point out that this combination makes them ideally placed to manufacture voter fraud. Earlier this year, President Petro accused the brothers of meeting Abelardo De la Espriella, with whom, it is alleged, they discussed distorting the 2026 election results. De la Espriella has fiercely denied the accusation, but the former head of Colombia’s DNI National Intelligence Department, confirmed that a meeting had been investigated.
Whether any irregularities have taken place will now be down to the scrutiny process, which also involves the collection and presentation of evidence by the witnesses and electoral officials stationed across the country, as well as the insights of international observers. A JFC electoral observation delegation is currently in Colombia, and we will inform of their conclusions in due course.